July 22, 2026 – January 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
This market resolves to "Yes" if Avengers: Doomsday records a higher 3-day domestic opening weekend gross than Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Otherwise, this market resolves to "No". Resolution will be based on the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table for each movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026, using the finalized 3-day opening weekend figures rather than studio estimates. Only the 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, and Sunday) figures listed by The Numbers will be considered, regardless of whether either film also has a 4-day or 5-day opening weekend. The comparison will use the domestic opening weekend values exactly as reported by The Numbers, regardless of whether "domestic" refers to the United States alone or the United States and Canada combined. If the finalized 3-day domestic opening weekend grosses for both movies are exactly equal, the movie whose title comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If the release of either movie is delayed, this market will remain open until both movies have completed their 3-day domestic opening weekends and reliable finalized box office figures are available to determine the outcome. If finalized data for one or both movies is not available by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, an alternative credible resolution source will be used to determine the outcome.
