July 22, 2026 – January 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| December 31 | 23% | 23¢ | 77¢ |
Each selection represents a date in 2026. A selection will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on the date shown for that selection, it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX have merged, are merging, or that either company has acquired, is acquiring, or will acquire the other. Otherwise, that selection will resolve to "No". An official announcement from either Tesla or SpaceX made on or before the 2026 date shown for this option is sufficient for a "Yes" outcome, regardless of whether the announced merger or acquisition is ultimately completed or when it takes effect. A transaction involving less than 100% of either company may still qualify if it results in the acquiring company obtaining a controlling interest in the other. For the purposes of this market, a controlling interest means ownership or governance rights that provide control over the company's strategic decisions, typically through ownership of more than 50% of the equity or an equivalent level of voting or governance control. Investments or transactions that do not transfer a controlling interest will not qualify. The primary source for resolving this market will be official announcements or communications from Tesla or SpaceX. If those are unavailable or insufficient, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the outcome.
