July 27, 2026 – December 31, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 48.5% | 48.5¢ | 51.5¢ |
| 41% | 41¢ | 59¢ |
This market will resolve in favor of the company that owns the model ranked highest on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the time of the market check. The leaderboard will be evaluated on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution will use the "Rank" column on the Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text, with style control turned off. Models will first be ranked according to their leaderboard position at the scheduled check time. If multiple models share the same rank, the model with the higher Arena score will take precedence, including any underlying unrounded or granular values available beneath the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, the company names listed in this market group will be compared alphabetically, with the earlier name taking priority (for example, if two models have identical Arena scores, Google would rank ahead of xAI). The company associated with the model that finishes first after applying these tiebreakers will determine the market outcome. The primary resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard available at https://lmarena.ai/. If the leaderboard cannot be accessed at the scheduled check time, this market will remain open until it is available again and will resolve using the first subsequent check. If the leaderboard is permanently unavailable, an alternative, credible resolution source will be used.
