July 22, 2026 – January 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64% | 64¢ | 36¢ |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product category by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. If this does not happen, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, a new product category means a type of product Apple has not previously sold. Updated versions, refreshes, or successors to existing product lines do not count. For example, an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console would qualify as a new product category, while new models of the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods would not. Resolution will be based on official announcements and information published by Apple.
