July 22, 2026 – September 1, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ |
| August 31 | 38% | 38¢ | 62¢ |
This market resolves to "Yes" if, by the date specified in the market title at 11:59 PM Israel time, Israel carries out one or more deliberate military strikes against Iranian territory, Iranian military facilities, or Iranian forces operating outside Iran. Qualifying strikes include airstrikes, missile attacks, drone strikes, or other kinetic military operations. A qualifying strike must be confirmed by an official statement from the Israeli government, an acknowledgment by the Iranian government, or by consistent reporting from at least two major international news organizations, such as Reuters, AP, BBC, Bloomberg, or their equivalents. To qualify, the action must constitute an intentional military strike. Accidental incidents, defensive interceptions of incoming attacks, cyber operations, economic sanctions, and diplomatic measures do not qualify. Likewise, isolated events, such as a single drone incident or limited incursion, will not qualify unless they are part of a coordinated military campaign. Military mobilization, threats, or statements of intent alone are insufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source will be official statements issued by the Israeli Ministry of Defense or the Office of the Prime Minister. If necessary, a consensus of credible international news reporting may also be used to determine the outcome.
