Will the US pause qualifying military actions against Iran for 14 consecutive days?

Resolution

This market resolves to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and the specified end date (11:59 PM ET), a continuous 14-day period occurs during which the United States does not carry out a qualifying military action against Iran. If no such 14-day period is completed, this market resolves to "No". The 14-day period begins on the calendar day (ET) immediately following the most recent qualifying military action, or on the date of market creation if no qualifying military action has occurred. The period concludes at 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any qualifying 14-day period is completed, provided the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). For the purposes of this market, a qualifying military action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike initiated by the United States that directly impacts Iran. Air strikes include bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. Surface-to-surface missile strikes include one-way attack drones as well as cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and other surface-to-surface missiles. The following are not considered qualifying military actions: * Munitions intercepted or destroyed before impact; * Surface-to-air missile strikes; * Small-arms fire; * Ground incursions; * Cyber operations; * Naval gunfire or artillery fire; * Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (including MLRS systems); * Minor surface-to-surface attacks, including short-range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; * Threats, authorizations, or announcements of military force that are not carried out. Any munition intercepted or destroyed before impact is excluded from consideration as a qualifying military action. Likewise, debris, fragments, or wreckage from intercepted munitions that lands within Iran does not qualify, regardless of any resulting damage. A military action is considered to have impacted Iran only if it directly strikes Iran's terrestrial territory, including its internal waters. Airspace and maritime territory are excluded. In areas with disputed borders, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will be treated as Iranian territory. Whether a qualifying military action occurred, who was responsible, and when it took place will be determined primarily through a consensus of the designated resolution sources. If those sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a reported action, the market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) a consensus is reached among the resolution sources, or (ii) three full calendar days (ET) have passed since the first credible report of the action. If this review period extends beyond the specified end date, the market will remain open long enough for the full three-calendar-day period to elapse. If conflicting information still exists at the end of that period, resolution will be based on the totality of available information from the resolution sources. No individual statement, denial, or piece of evidence will be considered decisive if contradicted by the overall body of available information. The primary resolution sources for this market are official statements from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran, together with credible reporting.